Margarita Estevez-Abe
International Herald Tribune THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 29,
2005
CAMBRIDGE,
Massachusetts Another victory for Japan's governing Liberal
Democratic Party. What's new? This time a lot. Japanese politics has
changed forever.
This month's election
was not just another victory for the LDP over the Democratic Party,
its major contender. More important, it was also a victory for
incumbent Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi in his attempt to
centralize power within his own party and unite the forces in favor
of change. Call it the UK-ization of Japan.
Whether voters intended
it or not, Koizumi's landslide victory means that the dice have been
cast in fa-vor of a British-style parliamentary system that
centralizes power in the hands of the prime minister. The election
results promise to transform Japan and its relations with the rest
of the world.
Four years ago, Koizumi
bid for the presidency of the governing Liberal Democrats by vowing
to "destroy the LDP." In his post-election interview, Koizumi
boasted that "the old LDP was destroyed and a new party emerged." He
is right. He effectively rendered the old protectionist wing of the
LDP powerless, by simply refusing to let it to run for office under
the LDP banner. Instead, he nominated a whole crop of first-time
candidates to run.
More than a quarter of
the LDP candidates elected this month are new faces. Nothing like
this has ever happened before. In the past, LDP prime ministers
never controlled the party nomination. From now on, the LDP will be
more like the British political parties. The Democratic Party will
have to follow the suit.
The days of weak leaders
are over in Japan. With or without Koizumi, the change in leadership
style is here to stay. Japan introduced a number of important
institutional reforms in the 1990s, including a change in the
electoral rules in 1994, and the strengthening of the cabinet and
the prime ministerial office in the late 1990s.
All these changes were
designed to turn Japan in-to a British-style parliamentary
democracy. Koizumi is a product of this new political structure. He
was the first to understand how the new political rules of the game
worked. Under them, individual politicians cannot survive by bucking
party leaders. Koizumi's victory has taught ambitious politicians
the need to rally behind a strong leader. There is no going back.
What will happen now? In
the short run, there will be bolder policy shifts. Postal
privatization is just the first step. We can expect Japan to address
its multiple challenges.
Japan is experiencing an
unprecedented degree of demographic aging. By 2025, nearly a third
of the population will be above 65. In the United States, in
contrast, less than one-fifth of the population will be older than
65. Japan also has one of the worst fiscal deficits among the
industrialized countries. Major reforms to address these issues are
finally on the agenda. The most likely scenario is a reduction in
benefits for the elderly as resources shift toward the active
working population.
Tax increases will most
likely take two forms. One is a moderate hike in the consumption tax
rate coupled with a social security reform that increases the
government's commitment to a basic social minimum. The other is
elimination of existing tax loopholes.
Internationally, Japan
has to redefine its role in the world. Japan's so-called Peace
Constitution has prevented the country from deploying its troops
abroad for military purposes. Koizumi wants to change Article 9 of
the Constitution in order to legitimate the Self Defense Forces as a
"military" and to facilitate future deployments outside Japanese
territories.
With only one year of
his term remaining, Koizumi may not deliver all these reforms
himself. But the "new party" that he brought to power is likely to
carry forward this agenda.
The end result is likely
to be a Japan that looks very much like Britain both domestically
and internationally. Japan will develop a more pro-market face and
be ready to take on a more active role in the U.S. global security
strategy.
American business and
policy makers will cer-tainly find the new Japan easier to
understand and to deal with. Whether a country like China will
welcome the change is another issue.
(Margarita
Estevez-Abe teaches Japanese politics at Harvard University and is
the author of the forthcoming ''Welfare and Capitalism in Postwar
Japan.'' )